Disadvantaged primary schools have seen pupil numbers fall more than twice as fast as the most affluent, analysis shows.

Primary schools with the highest rates of free school meal (FSM) eligibility saw pupil numbers fall by 7.3 per cent between 2018-19 and 2025-26, compared with 3.3 per cent among the least disadvantaged schools, research by the National Foundation for Educational Research (NFER) has found.

The burden of falling rolls - and its impact on per-pupil funding - is therefore disproportionately affecting schools that are already likely to face significant challenges, the think tank warns.

This could “increasingly hamper the education of disadvantaged pupils” and undermine the government’s aim of halving the disadvantage gap in GCSE attainment, the NFER says.

Falling pupil rolls cut funding

There will be 400,000 fewer school pupils by 2030, according to Department for Education projections, with primary numbers alone projected to fall by about 7 per cent between 2025 and the end of the decade.

And the National Audit Office recently warned that primary schools could receive £288 million less in per-pupil funding next year due to falling rolls.

Pupil numbers in state primary schools have already fallen by almost 5 per cent since peaking in 2018-19, and the largest single-year fall was in 2025-26, according to the NFER.

Falling pupil numbers will leave schools facing a drop in funding, even where the loss of pupils is not large enough to justify cutting a class or teacher, the NFER says.

This will lead to schools cutting staffing and provision, risking educational quality and pupils’ experience of school, it adds.

London schools hit hardest

London has been most affected by falling primary pupil numbers, with this trend expected to continue.

In the 10 London local authority areas that have seen the largest fall in primary pupil numbers since 2018-19, the most disadvantaged schools saw a 21.5 per cent decline, the NFER found.

This was more than four times the fall seen among the least disadvantaged schools in those areas, where pupil numbers fell by 4.7 per cent.

The same pattern existed in the 10 local authorities outside London with the largest falls in pupil numbers, although the differences between schools were less pronounced.

One possible reason for the sharper London trend was parents may have more viable local options in the capital and may be more likely to move their child when a place becomes available elsewhere, the NFER suggests.

High disadvantage

The analysis also found that schools with the largest falls in pupil numbers have the highest rates of disadvantage.

Schools with the largest falls in pupil numbers across England had an average FSM rate of 30 per cent in 2025-26.

This compares with 23 per cent among schools that had seen the smallest falls in pupil numbers, according to the NFER.

The average FSM eligibility across England was around 26 per cent in 2025-26.

Schools with the largest falls in rolls had also seen FSM rates rise more rapidly since 2018-19, the NFER found.

DfE urged to assess impact

The NFER urges the government to assess the impact of falling rolls on disadvantaged pupils’ outcomes.

It also calls on the DfE to increase support for schools through local authorities via the falling rolls fund.

The current criteria for accessing the cash, requiring pupil numbers in a local area to fall by 10 per cent in a year, limit funding, the think tank says.

Easing this threshold and increasing support would help to reduce the need for immediate cuts to school spending, it adds.

Local authorities should make proactive decisions about school distribution in their areas, working with schools and trusts to ensure that all children have access to a sustainable local school, the NFER recommends.

The House of Lords Public Services Committee has begun an inquiry into falling primary school rolls.

The Association of School and College Leaders said it fully endorses the report’s recommendations.

Julia Harnden, deputy director of policy at the union, said: “It is essential that these schools are not left to languish with mounting financial pressures caused by circumstances beyond their control.”